Rate of return on the market
Negative stock market returns occur, on average, about one out of every four years. Historical data shows that the positive years far outweigh the negative years. The average annualized return of the S&P 500 Index was about 11.69% from 1973 to 2016. If the current rate of return for short-term T-bills is 5%, the market risk premium is 7% to 5%, or 2%. However, the returns on individuals stocks may be considerably higher or lower depending on their volatility relative to the market. Stocks will probably rise at about that rate and dividend payments will boost total returns to 6 percent to 7 percent, he said.” Didn’t the stock market do far better than that in the past? “The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, a benchmark for U.S. stocks, surged 18 percent a year on average from 1982 to 1999.